Will the ₩260,000 Era Arrive? 5 Reasons Kiwoom Securities' Samsung Electronics Target Price Upgrade Holds the Key to KOSPI's Rebound
On March 3rd, Kiwoom Securities raised its Samsung Electronics target price from ₩210,000 to ₩260,000, maintaining a 'Buy' recommendation. Even amid the Middle East-driven KOSPI plunge, the forecast that Samsung's operating profit will surpass ₩200 trillion is emerging as the key variable limiting the downside.
Why you need to read this now: On the very day markets are rattled by the Middle East war and a 2% KOSPI plunge, Kiwoom Securities has raised its Samsung Electronics target price from ₩210,000 → ₩260,000. Is this a factor limiting the downside — or an early signal of something bigger?
TL;DR
- Kiwoom Securities raised its Samsung Electronics target price on 3/3 to ₩260,000 (from ₩210,000, +23.8%)
- First-ever forecast of ₩200 trillion in operating profit for 2026
- Three key catalysts: HBM4 mass production ramp, additional NAND price hikes, Exynos 2700 share expansion
- Amid Middle East-driven KOSPI plunge, the foreign selling vs. target price upgrade standoff is the key dynamic to watch
- Samsung Electronics' NLRC mediation outcome (this afternoon) is an additional short-term variable
1. The Facts: The Basis for Kiwoom's ₩260,000 Target
On the morning of March 3rd, Kiwoom Securities analyst Park Yu-ak published a report raising the Samsung Electronics (005930) target price from ₩210,000 to ₩260,000, while maintaining a 'Buy' investment opinion.
This represents approximately a 20% premium over the previous session's (2/27) closing price of ₩216,500, making it the highest target price among Korean brokerages for Samsung Electronics in 2026.
Three core rationales:
- 2026 annual operating profit surpassing ₩200 trillion — The industry's first ₩200 trillion forecast. Factors include additional NAND price hikes, full-scale HBM4 mass production, and a reduction in non-memory losses.
- Exynos 2700 capturing 50% share in Galaxy S27 — Yield improvements in the SF2P process are expected to achieve double the Galaxy S26's 25% share.
- Non-memory turning profitable in 2027 — Projected to swing from -₩3.6 trillion in 2026 to +₩1.8 trillion in 2027, signaling further upside for the stock.
2. Why This Report Is Getting Attention Today
Today (3/3) marks KOSPI's first trading session in three days after consecutive holidays for Samiljeol (Independence Movement Day) and its substitute holiday. The triple headwinds of the US-Iran war entering its third day of escalation, fears of a Hormuz Strait blockade, and foreign selling pressure pushed KOSPI down more than 2% in early trading, threatening the 6,100 level.
In this context, Kiwoom's ₩260,000 target serves as:
- A check on selling sentiment — signaling "fundamentals are intact"
- A reference benchmark for institutions and foreign investors — using the gap between the target and current price
- Immediate media and SNS amplification — simultaneously picked up by Nate News, Korea Economic Daily, and Chosun Biz
3. Context & Background: Samsung Electronics' 2026 Semiconductor Cycle
HBM4 Mass Production — The Core Catalyst
Samsung Electronics is targeting full-scale HBM4 mass production in H2 2026, approximately six months behind SK Hynix. Whether it secures supply contracts for NVIDIA's Blackwell and Rubin platforms will be the key variable for annual results.
Additional NAND Price Hikes
The NAND price recovery that began in H2 2025 is continuing into 2026. Expanding DDR5 demand and accelerating data center investment are reinforcing price support.
Taylor Plant Delay — A Risk Factor
However, Samsung's Taylor (Texas, USA) 2nm mass production is reported to have been delayed to early 2027 (JoongAng Daily exclusive, 3/3). This could affect the timeline for supplying Tesla's AI6 chips.
4. Outlook: What It Would Take for ₩260,000 to Become Reality
| Condition | Current Status | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Early end to Middle East war | Trump hints at '4–5 week operation' | Uncertain |
| HBM4 NVIDIA supply secured | Negotiations ongoing | Outcome in Q2 2026 |
| Foreign selling reversing to buying | Currently net selling | Short-term selling dominant |
| Samsung Electronics strike averted | NLRC mediation D-Day today | Decision this afternoon |
How much foreign investors net-sell Samsung Electronics today will determine near-term direction. From a medium- to long-term perspective, securing HBM4 orders is the key condition for reaching ₩260,000.
5. Risk Checklist
Reference Links
- Kiwoom Securities Samsung Electronics ₩260,000 target — Nate News
- Samsung Electronics 2026 ₩200 trillion operating profit forecast — Kiwoom PDF
- KOSPI reopens amid Middle East headwinds — E-Today et al.
Image Credit
- Samsung Electronics Suwon HQ: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0