Iran's New Supreme Leader Chooses All-Out War: 5 Scenarios Mojtaba Khamenei's Selection as Successor Poses for the Middle East War and Korea's Economy
Reports emerged that Mojtaba Khamenei (56), the second son of deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has been selected as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. His rise — as a hardline conservative and powerful behind-the-scenes figure with strong influence over the Revolutionary Guards — signals Iran's choice of all-out resistance, and could make scenarios of a Hormuz blockade, oil price surge, and further KRW/USD depreciation a reality.
One-line hook: The son emerges after his father's death — the 'invisible power broker' who could reshape the course of the Iran War steps into the spotlight.
TL;DR
- Following the death of Ali Khamenei (February 28, 2026), Iranian opposition outlet Iran International cited sources reporting that his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei (56), has been selected as successor
- Mojtaba holds no official title yet wields enormous influence within the IRGC and intelligence apparatus as a behind-the-scenes powerbroker
- Continuation of the hardline conservative line is all but certain → all-out resistance and a strengthened Hormuz blockade scenario become realistic
- Israel immediately warned: "Whoever becomes the next leader is a target for elimination"
- Korea faces a triple shock of a renewed oil price surge, further KRW/USD depreciation, and export disruption
The Facts — What Happened
On February 28, 2026, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US–Israeli airstrike (Operation Epic Fury). Iran's Assembly of Experts subsequently convened an emergency session to begin the succession process. On March 4, 2026, Iranian opposition outlet Iran International cited sources reporting that Mojtaba Khamenei (Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, age 56) had been effectively confirmed as the new Supreme Leader.
Yonhap News, MBC, Chosun Biz, JoongAng Ilbo, and YTN all carried the story as breaking news.
The 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Supreme Leader's second son, is the frontrunner to succeed his father. He has long been regarded as the real power operating behind the scenes. — MBC News Desk, March 4, 2026
Why This Story Is Breaking Now
Following Khamenei's death, the power vacuum in Iran became the pivotal variable in determining the war's outcome. A moderate successor would open the door to negotiations; a hardliner would mean prolonged conflict. Mojtaba is unmistakably a hardliner.
- This news broke on the same evening that KOSPI's record single-day drop of -12.06% was confirmed, reigniting market panic
- Trump had said "the Iran war will be over in 4–5 weeks," but the emergence of a hardline successor adds weight to the prolonged war scenario
- Compounded by reports of Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia) considering military involvement, fears of a full-scale Middle East war are at their peak
Context — Who Is Mojtaba?
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Age | 56 (estimated born 1970) |
| Official Title | None; operates behind the scenes |
| Background | Islamic cleric; deeply versed in security and military institution management |
| Influence | Enormous influence within the IRGC and intelligence agencies |
| Political Line | Hardline conservative; same line as his father |
| Israel's Response | "Whoever becomes the successor is a target for elimination" |
Mojtaba has never held a single official government post, yet has long been known inside Iran as the 'hidden power.' Mehdi Ramati, a Tehran-based analyst cited by the New York Times, said "Mojtaba is very well-versed in coordinating security and military operations, making him the most logical choice at this moment," while noting that "some are watching with concern."
Outlook — Where Is the Iran War Headed?
Scenario 1: Prolonged All-Out War
Hardline successor selected → IRGC resistance continues → war extends from 4–5 weeks to 3+ months. Possibility of oil prices breaking back above $100 → $130.
Scenario 2: Strengthened Hormuz Blockade
Mojtaba takes command of IRGC → issues Hormuz Strait blockade order → 30%+ disruption to LNG and crude oil supply → deepening energy crisis for Korea.
Scenario 3: Drawing Gulf States into the War
Iran strikes UAE and Saudi Arabia again → Gulf states respond militarily → the front expands across the entire Arabian Peninsula, global supply chain collapses.
Scenario 4: Collapse of Negotiation Prospects
Conflict between moderate President Pezeshkian and the hardline Supreme Leader exposed → internal power split within Iran → unpredictable decision-making risk.
Scenario 5: U.S. Exit Strategy Complicated
Trump's vision of a "quick end to the war" → diplomatic off-ramps narrowed by the hardline successor's emergence → anti-war sentiment vs. escalation hawks clash intensifies within the U.S.
Korea Checklist
Reference Links
- "Khamenei's Son Named as Iran's Next Supreme Leader" – JoongAng Ilbo
- 'Ultra-hardline' Khamenei Son Frontrunner for Supreme Leader – MBC
- Mojtaba Khamenei Selected as Iran's Next Supreme Leader – Chosun Biz
- "Iran Said to Select Mojtaba Khamenei as Likely Successor" – Yonhap News
- Gulf states say they will retaliate if Iran continues attacks – The Globe and Mail
- Iran's strikes on Gulf states may widen war – Reuters
Image Credit
- Photo of Mojtaba Khamenei: Wikimedia Commons, Mojtaba_Khamenei_2019.jpg