Leave Before the Flights Are Cut Off: Why South Korea's Embassy in Iran Issued an 'Evacuation Order' Amid Imminent U.S. Strike
On February 22, 2026, the South Korean Embassy in Iran issued an urgent notice urging Korean nationals to 'depart while flights are still available.' President Trump is reportedly considering a large-scale military strike—including a regime-change operation—if nuclear negotiations collapse, with experts putting the probability of war within days at 90%.
Right now, the government's message to Koreans in Iran is one and only one: "Leave immediately while flights are still available."
TL;DR
- President Trump publicly reviewing a limited military strike to pressure Iran on nuclear negotiations (2/20)
- A large-scale strike targeting regime change in the event of negotiation breakdown also discussed internally at the White House
- South Korean Embassy in Iran issues emergency notice on 2/22 urging 'immediate departure' before flights are blocked
- Western media including the UK's Telegraph report a 90% probability of war within days
- Iran responds by shifting to wartime footing and threatening retaliatory strikes on U.S. military bases in the region
The Facts: What Happened
Trump's Escalating Warnings
On February 6, 2026, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks resumed in Muscat, Oman — for the first time in eight months. Trump called them "good conversations," but insiders on the U.S. negotiating team described them as "a meeting with no substance." The sticking point was Iran's refusal to completely halt uranium enrichment.
After the second round of talks in Geneva on February 17 also failed to find common ground, Trump gave Iran a deadline of up to two weeks to reach a nuclear agreement. On February 19, he publicly mentioned that "if Iran does not agree, we may need to use Diego Garcia and the UK's RAF Fairford air base."
On February 20, Trump officially acknowledged before White House reporters that he was "considering a limited military strike," and according to a Chosun Ilbo report on February 24, a large-scale strike scenario targeting regime change in Iran was also placed on the table at internal staff meetings.
South Korean Embassy in Iran Emergency Notice (2/22)
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs currently has a Level 3 Travel Warning (Departure Recommended / Red Alert) in effect for all of Iran. On February 22, the South Korean Embassy in Iran issued an additional safety notice stating:
"If the local situation deteriorates sharply, civilian flight services may be suspended. We urge you to depart while available flights are still operating."
This is not a simple advisory to refrain from travel — it is a measure tantamount to an emergency evacuation order just before flights are cut off. It is particularly noteworthy that the U.S. issued similar evacuation orders to its embassies in Lebanon and Iraq just before the 'Midnight Hammer' operation struck Iranian nuclear facilities in June of last year.
The Escalation Mechanism: Why It's So Hot Right Now
Military Buildup
U.S. forces have deployed a large force including carrier strike groups to the Middle East to pressure Iran. CNN reported that "U.S. forces could complete preparations for a strike by this weekend." While U.S. Forces Korea are separately conducting drills confronting China in the Yellow Sea, if a Middle East front opens simultaneously, the ripple effects on Korean security could be indirect but significant.
Iran's Counter-Response
In preparation for a breakdown of nuclear talks, Iran has shifted its national systems to a wartime footing. Iran's foreign minister warned that "if the United States attacks, U.S. military bases and assets in the region will become legitimate targets," threatening retaliation. Iran is deploying its missile forces to the frontline and is in the process of strengthening its air defense network with Russia.
The Meaning of the '90% Probability' Report
The '90% chance of war within days' forecast cited by the UK's Telegraph is circulating alongside the paradoxical report that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff urged against an attack due to ammunition shortages. Analysis is dominated by the view that only Trump's final decision remains.
Stakeholders: Who Is Involved
| Party | Position |
|---|---|
| Trump Administration | Pressuring nuclear talks → Military strike / regime change scenario if talks collapse |
| Iranian Government | Refuses to halt uranium enrichment; shifts to wartime footing; threatens retaliatory strikes |
| Korean Nationals in Iran | Departure advisory issued; tracking of Korean nationals and repatriation support underway |
| South Korean Government | Maintaining red alert; confirming safety of nationals through embassy |
| Israel | Supportive of strike on Iran; possible coordination with the U.S. |
| Russia & China | Supporting Iran; if attacked, escalating diplomatic battle at UN Security Council expected |
Context and Background
In June 2025, the United States conducted the 'Midnight Hammer' operation, precisely striking Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's retaliation at the time was limited, but its nuclear program was not completely eliminated. The current crisis is a Round 2 confrontation arising from the subsequent collapse of negotiations. If the Trump administration now targets regime change, this could become the largest military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War.
South Korea has a substantial Korean national community and corporate interests in Iran, and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to directly impact crude oil supply and maritime logistics. A significant portion of Korea's crude oil imports comes from the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz is the key passage.
Outlook: How Long Will It Last?
Short-term (1–7 days): The key is whether Trump makes a final decision. Two scenarios: talks dramatically resume, or a strike order is issued.
Medium-term (1–3 months): If a strike occurs, Iran's retaliation → risk of escalation across the Middle East. If Hormuz is blockaded, oil prices will spike and global supply chain disruption will recur.
Long-term: If the Iran regime-change scenario becomes reality, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East will be redrawn. Long-term implications for Korea's Middle East diplomacy and energy strategy as well.
Risk Checklist
Reference Links
- South Korean Embassy in Iran Safety Notice (2/22)
- Chosun Ilbo: Trump mentions large-scale strike targeting 'Iran regime change' (2/24)
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons, Middle East map (CC BY-SA 3.0)