The $100 Billion Paradox: SK Hynix's HBM Golden Age and the 'AI Black Hole' Risk Chey Tae-won Warned About

📌 Image Unavailable: Official SK Hynix images and HBM chip photos cannot be attached to the Files property due to copyright restrictions. Image source links are provided within the article instead.

Why does this matter now? A single remark from Chairman Chey Tae-won simultaneously projected both '₩145 trillion in operating profit' and '₩145 trillion in losses.' This article examines SK Hynix's position at the crossroads of the AI infrastructure explosion and extreme volatility.

TL;DR

• SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won mentioned the possibility of SK Hynix's 2026 operating profit exceeding $100 billion (approx. ₩145 trillion) (at the TPD event in Washington, Feb. 20)
• 2025 results: Revenue ₩98 trillion · Operating profit ₩47 trillion (all-time high, first-ever surpassing Samsung Electronics)
• Key driver: Explosive demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with a market margin of approx. 60%
• However, Chairman Chey simultaneously warned "A $100 billion loss is also possible" — signaling extreme AI industry volatility
• Some securities firms are forecasting operating profit as high as ₩175 trillion

📊 2026 Real-Time Trend Keyword Status (as of 2026-02-27 04:30 KST)

Key Summary

The top issues are SK Hynix's operating profit outlook and the Lee Jun-seok vs. Jeon Han-gil election fraud debate. On the economic front, three major inflection points are drawing simultaneous attention: the AI semiconductor rally, KOSPI 6000, and the decline in Gangnam apartment prices. On the political front, Lee Jae-myung's indictment withdrawal, Kang Seon-woo's arrest warrant, and the three judicial reform bills are converging into a separation-of-powers debate.

Points to Watch

• The upward revision in SK Hynix's operating profit outlook is linked to the KOSPI rally, with overheating warnings emerging simultaneously
• The Lee Jun-seok vs. Jeon Han-gil debate's impact will depend on real-time YouTube viewership
• Watch whether the first Gangnam apartment price decline in 100 weeks triggers selling sentiment among multi-property owners

The Facts: What Happened

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won made the following remarks on February 20, 2026 (local time) at the 'Trans-Pacific Dialogue (TPD) 2026' event hosted by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies in Washington, D.C.:

"I think SK Hynix's operating profit forecast this year could exceed $100 billion (approx. ₩145 trillion), which sounds like really good news, but it could also be a $100 billion loss."

SK Hynix's 2025 results had already reached an all-time high:

The 2025 operating profit of ₩47 trillion surpassed Samsung Electronics for the first time, driven by a surge in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand.

Why It's Trending Now

The Structural Tailwind Created by HBM

HBM is a memory technology that vertically stacks DRAM chips to supply ultra-high bandwidth to high-performance GPUs. It is essential for AI training and inference, with a market margin rate of approximately 60%. The 'monster chip' mentioned by Chairman Chey refers to HBM4 (4th generation), which stacks 16 chips, and SK Hynix holds a near-monopoly supply position for major AI chip companies such as Nvidia.

The Race for Optimism on Wall Street

Following Chairman Chey's remarks, securities firms began releasing reports forecasting operating profit of up to ₩175 trillion — approximately 3.7 times the 2025 figure. These projections rest on the assumption that AI infrastructure investment led by big tech will continue to grow explosively through 2026.

Context: The '$100 Billion Loss' Warning Is Not Empty Talk

What deserves attention in Chairman Chey's remarks is not the optimism, but the bidirectional risk warning.

① AI Bubble Burst Scenario

Overdemand for Nvidia GPUs → HBM inventory buildup → Price collapse. Given the nature of the semiconductor industry, when the demand cycle turns, inventory losses are immediately reflected.

② Technology Substitution Risk

If next-generation AI architectures starting in the second half of 2026 reduce memory dependency, the structural demand for HBM could falter. Chairman Chey's statement that "new technology could be a solution, but it could also eliminate everything" was made with this scenario in mind.

③ Geopolitical Variables

US-China semiconductor regulations, Trump tariff uncertainty, and the possibility of HBM export controls remain as constants.

Stakeholders: Who Is Affected

• SK Hynix shareholders and investors: Short-term rally vs. cyclical volatility risk
• Samsung Electronics: Whether it can recover HBM market share will determine the competitive landscape
• The Korean economy as a whole: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics semiconductor exports accounted for approximately 25% of total Korean exports in 2025
• KOSPI investors: High concentration in semiconductor mega-caps means the HBM cycle determines the index's direction

Outlook: How Long Will It Last?

Optimistic scenario: Nvidia, AMD, and Google TPU demand holds, and SK Hynix's near-monopoly on HBM4 supply persists throughout 2026 → Annual operating profit of ₩100~145 trillion achievable

Neutral scenario: AI infrastructure investment pace moderates → Operating profit converges at the ₩70~90 trillion level

Pessimistic scenario: AI demand collapses sharply + geopolitical regulatory tightening → Inventory losses, operating profit reversal to the ₩30 trillion range

Estimated lifespan: 1~3 days (short-term investment sentiment boost), with potential for long-term continuation as a mid-to-long-term stock momentum driver

✅ Checklist for Investors and Information Consumers

Reference Links

• Chey Tae-won: "SK Hynix operating profit could exceed $100 billion" — Maeil Business Newspaper
• Chey Tae-won: "AI is swallowing everything… Hynix $100B forecast" — BizWatch
• SK Hynix $100 billion operating profit forecast — YouTube analysis

Image Sources

• SK Hynix logo and HBM chip images: SK Hynix Newsroom (cannot be attached directly due to copyright restrictions)