Lower Than Martial Law: 4 Shockwaves South Korea's PPP Historic-Low 17% Approval Sends to the June 3 Local Elections
South Korea's People Power Party (PPP) has seen its party approval rating collapse to a historic all-time low of 17% — falling even below the level recorded immediately after Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law declaration. The party is now tied with the Democratic Party at 28% even in its traditional stronghold of TK (Daegu-Gyeongbuk), as an existential crisis for the conservative bloc spreads just 97 days before the June 3 local elections.
One-Line Hook: 17% — lower than during martial law. The speed at which the PPP is collapsing from 'opposition party' to 'fringe minority opinion' is startling.
TL;DR
- PPP party approval: 17% (-5%p from the previous poll), an all-time low even below the level immediately after Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law declaration
- President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating: 67% — highest since taking office, announced simultaneously
- TK (Daegu-Gyeongbuk) 28% — tied with the Democratic Party at 28%, 'conservative heartland' has crumbled
- Centrist voter support: 9% — all-time low
- Released 97 days before the June 3 local elections, bringing the conservative crisis to the forefront
The Facts: What Happened
On February 26, 2026, a joint poll conducted by four research firms — Embrain Public, KStat Research, Korea Research, and Han Research (February 23–25, 1,000 adults nationwide) — revealed shocking numbers.
Key Figures:
| Indicator | This Poll | Previous Poll | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| President Lee Jae-myung approval | 67% | 64% | +3%p |
| Democratic Party approval | 45% | 44% | +1%p |
| PPP approval | 17% | 22% | -5%p |
| PPP centrist voter approval | 9% | — | All-time low |
| PPP approval in TK region | 28% | — | Tied with Democrats |
Notably, even immediately after President Yoon Suk-yeol's emergency martial law declaration, the PPP maintained approval ratings in the low-to-mid 20s. The 17% figure completely shatters that floor.
The Mechanism: Why These Numbers Emerged Now
1. The Backfire of the 'Yoon Again' Debate
Within the PPP, a fierce internal conflict erupted between the party leadership and younger members over the question of restoring and reinstating Yoon Suk-yeol. Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk drew a line against the 'Yoon Again' path, but with no concrete follow-through, the base began to defect. The 'tightrope strategy' of neither breaking with nor rallying behind former President Yoon ultimately cost the party both centrist voters and TK public sentiment.
2. Failure to Counter the Judicial Reform Bills
On February 26, the Judicial Distortion Crime Bill passed the National Assembly floor vote. The PPP attempted a filibuster but could not stop it due to its minority seat count. Passing without being blocked or negotiated away reinforced the perception that the PPP is a party completely incapable of fulfilling its role as a major opposition party.
3. President Lee Jae-myung's Visible Results in the 'Price War'
A series of tangible consumer-focused moves by the Lee Jae-myung government — including price cuts at Paris Baguette and Tous les Jours, the FTC's sanctions against Coupang, and investigations into flour and sugar price-fixing — pushed the president's approval to 67%. The inverse relationship between opposition and presidential approval was confirmed once again.
Context and Background
The Historic Significance of the TK Tie
Daegu and Gyeongbuk have been the PPP's (and its predecessors') undefeated fortress in South Korean electoral history. Since democratization in 1987, there are virtually no precedents of a Democratic Party-aligned force drawing even with the PPP in this region. The 28%:28% tie is a political-historical event beyond the numbers themselves.
Why It's Lower Than Right After Martial Law
In December 2024, immediately after President Yoon Suk-yeol declared emergency martial law, voices within the PPP condemning the martial law rang out and there were moves toward expulsion and disciplinary action. Because the party appeared to be attempting internal self-correction, its approval held to some degree. However, as the ambiguous attitude toward former President Yoon persisted, the narrative that the PPP is 'complicit in the martial law conspiracy' has hardened.
Connection to the June 3 Local Elections
The June 3 local elections are 97 days away. The sitting mayors and governors of Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Busan — all major metropolitan areas — are PPP incumbents. A 17% approval rating is a direct warning signal to their re-election prospects.
Stakeholders: Who's Involved
- PPP Chairman Jang Dong-hyuk: A record-low approval after taking office; urgent decisions needed on the party's reform direction
- Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon · Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon (Democratic): This poll has made the local election landscape even clearer
- President Lee Jae-myung: At 67% approval, he can accelerate a legislative drive in the second half of his term without worrying about lame-duck status
- Pro-Yoon lawmakers: Their standing within the party has rapidly weakened; under pressure to reconsider the 'Yoon Again' path
- Centrist voters: At 9%, they have effectively started placing the PPP 'off the table' as a viable choice
Outlook: How Long Will This Last?
Short-Term (1–4 Weeks)
The debate over the PPP's ideological direction will intensify. If a lawmaker publicly declares a break from Yoon, there could be a small, temporary bounce in approval. But without concrete policy alternatives, it will be difficult to build momentum.
Medium-Term (3 Months / June 3 Local Elections)
If the PPP loses more than 10 metropolitan governor seats in the local elections, discussions about disbanding and reconstituting the party could become concrete. On the other hand, holding Seoul and Busan could be interpreted as a successful 'bottoming out.'
Long-Term (1 Year or More)
As the 2027 presidential election comes into view, if the PPP fails to nurture viable 'post-Yoon' candidates, a third-party force stands a significant chance of encroaching on the conservative political space.
Checklist: 4 Things to Watch Going Forward
Risks
Risk of inaccuracy: This is a single poll result, so fluctuation within the margin of error (±3.1%p, 95% confidence level) is possible. Cross-verification with polls from other agencies is recommended.
Polarization risk: The 17% figure could simultaneously fuel premature overconfidence among opposition supporters and political cynicism. The fact that three months remain until the local elections must not be overlooked.
Reference Links
- PPP Approval Plummets to 17%... No Region Where It's Dominant — Chosun Ilbo (2026.02.27)
- PPP Approval Below Yoon's Martial Law Level... 9% Among Centrists, All-Time Low — Dong-A Ilbo (2026.02.27)
- Presidential Approval at Post-Inauguration High... PPP at 17% — MBC News (2026.02.27)
- PPP Approval Falls to 17%... Tied with Democrats Even in TK — Chosun Ilbo (2026.02.26)
Image source: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (Wikimedia Commons)