37 Years of Iron Rule Ends, No Successor: 5 Shockwaves Khamenei's Death Sends to Iran, the Middle East, and Korea's Economy
On February 28, 2026, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (86) was killed in a joint US-Israel airstrike. Amid the vacuum left by 37 years of rule, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes and is urgently selecting a new supreme leader, while the Korean government has also entered emergency response mode.
Why you need to watch this now: With the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, the cornerstone of a theocratic regime that stood for 37 years has collapsed. The expansion of the Middle Eastern front, the risk of a Hormuz blockade, and shockwaves to the global energy supply chain are all unfolding simultaneously.
TL;DR
- February 28, 2026: Khamenei's death confirmed following a joint US-Israel airstrike
- Iran has launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and major US military bases across 8 countries in the Middle East (Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman)
- No designated successor — the Assembly of Experts (88 members) convened in emergency session, with a new leader expected to be elected within 1–2 days
- President Trump warned Iran to "stand down," while Congress signaled a vote on a War Powers Resolution
- President Lee Jae-myung issued emergency response directives; Korea's energy, aviation, and corporate risk management is underway
The Facts: What Happened
In the early hours of February 28, 2026 (local time), the United States and Israel carried out a joint missile strike on the Iranian capital Tehran. Seven missiles struck the area around the presidential palace in Shemiran and the vicinity of Khamenei's residence and offices. Iran's state broadcaster (IRIB) announced that day: "The Supreme Leader has been martyred."[1]
Khamenei had served as Supreme Leader for 37 years following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989 — the symbolic head of Iran's theocratic system.[2]
Why This Is Escalating Explosively
1. Power Vacuum — No Prepared Successor
Khamenei died without officially designating a successor. Under Iran's constitution, the Supreme Leader is elected by a secret vote of the Assembly of Experts, composed of 88 senior clerics. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that "a new Supreme Leader will be elected within 1–2 days," but whether a swift consensus is possible amid ongoing external airstrikes remains deeply uncertain.[3]
Leading Candidates
| Candidate | Background | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei (second son) | Powerful influence within the IRGC | Father's legacy | Backlash against dynastic succession |
| Ali Larijani | Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council | Ability to stabilize the regime | Suspicions over reformist leanings |
| Alireza Arafi | Head of seminary, member of Assembly of Experts | Strong religious orthodoxy | Weak political base |
2. Retaliatory Strikes — Rapid Expansion of the Middle Eastern Front
Iran launched missiles at Israel and US bases across 8 countries in the Middle East.[4] Major airports including Abu Dhabi and Dubai were successively closed, leaving approximately 20,000 Korean tourists stranded. President Trump warned of "a stronger strike" in the event of further retaliation, and the US Congress signaled a vote on a War Powers Resolution.
3. Regime Instability — Risk of Anti-Government Protests Reigniting
Following anti-government protests that ran from December last year through January, the news of Khamenei's death has triggered a mix of relief, distrust, and anxiety within Iran. A descendant of the Pahlavi dynasty declared that "the Islamic Republic has effectively reached its end."[5]
Context & Background: 37 Years of Khamenei's Rule
Born in 1939 in Mashhad, Iran, Khamenei rose as a key confidant of Khomeini following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In 1981, while serving as president, he lost his right arm in a mosque bombing. Ascending to the position of Supreme Leader immediately after Khomeini's death in 1989, he consistently pursued nuclear weapons development, a hardline stance against the US and Israel, and the empowerment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).[2]
Outlook: 5 Shockwaves for Korea
- Energy Price Surge — Heightened risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil passes. Growing cost pressure on Korea's refining and petrochemical industries
- Aviation & Logistics Disruption — Paralysis of air freight routes via the Middle East. Temporary suspension of Incheon–Dubai and Abu Dhabi routes, and rising costs for alternative routing
- Won Weakness & Rate Volatility — Dollar strength pressure from expanding geopolitical risk premiums. Growing uncertainty around the Bank of Korea's monetary policy
- Defense & Nuclear Export Opportunity — Rising demand in Saudi Arabia and the UAE for enhanced defense capabilities amid Middle East tensions. Potential acceleration of cooperation on Korean defense exports and small modular reactors (SMRs)
- Diplomatic Test for the Lee Jae-myung Government — The presidential office has issued emergency response directives, requiring crisis management during a visit to the Singapore AI Connect Summit
Checklist: What to Monitor Now
Reference Links
- AP News: Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead at 86
- Al Jazeera: World reacts to killing of Iran's Khamenei by US, Israel forces
- Yonhap: Discussion on successor after Khamenei's death
- Hankyoreh: Khamenei, 'God's Deputy' Killed in US Airstrike
- Chosun Ilbo: Pahlavi's reaction to Khamenei's death
- Donga Ilbo: Iran's 37-year iron-fisted rule draws to a close
Image Credit
- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Tehran, 2007): Wikimedia Commons — Creative Commons