The ₩15.7 Billion Dilemma: 5 Reasons Iran Is Considering Withdrawing from the 2026 FIFA World Cup While at War
With U.S. and Israeli airstrikes killing Iran's supreme leader and intensifying the war, the Iranian national football team is considering withdrawing from the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America. Withdrawal would mean a minimum loss of ₩15.7 billion and exclusion from 2030 World Cup qualifying.
Why you need to watch this now: War is swallowing sport. Iran's potential withdrawal from the World Cup is not merely a sports story — it cuts to the heart of the international football order and FIFA's double standards.
TL;DR
- Iran has already secured its place in Group G (Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America
- U.S. and Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, rapidly paralyzing the Iranian government
- The venue is the United States — making visa issuance for the Iranian squad highly uncertain
- Withdrawal means a minimum ₩15.7 billion loss + potential exclusion from 2030 World Cup qualifying
- Iraq and the UAE are being mentioned as possible replacements; all eyes are on how FIFA responds
📋 The Facts: What Happened
Iran's national football team had already secured their berth in the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, finishing 1st in AFC Final Round Group A (7W 2D 1L). In the joint North American host tournament (USA, Canada, Mexico), Iran was drawn into Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. All three group-stage matches were scheduled to be played in the United States, with a base camp being prepared in Tucson, Arizona.
However, following the large-scale U.S.-Israeli airstrike on Iran that began on February 28, 2026, and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran's internal political and administrative functions have been rapidly destabilized. Iran's football federation and government have officially begun reviewing the possibility of withdrawing, according to AP and Yonhap News.
🔥 Why It's Spreading: The Heat Behind the Story
1. War Meets Sport
With the Iran war dominating front pages daily, the keyword 'Iran World Cup' is naturally flowing in as an extension of war coverage.
2. FIFA's Double-Standard Controversy
When Russia invaded Ukraine, FIFA immediately stripped Russia of its membership. Yet now, Iran — the victim of an attack — finds itself contemplating withdrawal. This ironic reversal is drawing intense scrutiny.
3. The Financial Pressure
Under FIFA rules, the financial losses from withdrawal would be substantial:
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Preparation cost reimbursement | USD 1.5 million (approx. ₩2.2 billion) |
| Group-stage elimination prize money | USD 9 million (approx. ₩13.1 billion) |
| Withdrawal penalty (30+ days before tournament) | Min. CHF 250,000 (approx. ₩470 million) |
| Total | Min. approx. USD 10.5 million (₩15.7 billion) |
🌐 Context & Background: Iranian Football and War
Iran is a traditional powerhouse in Asian football. The 2026 World Cup was set to be Iran's fourth consecutive World Cup appearance. At the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Iran was placed in Group B alongside England, the USA, and Wales — they did not advance from the group stage but delivered an impressive performance.
The most significant obstacle, however, is that the tournament is hosted by the United States — Iran's adversary. Whether the U.S. government would grant visas to the Iranian squad in wartime conditions is entirely unclear. FIFA regulations require the host nation to guarantee entry for all participating nations' delegations, but how this clause would be applied in a wartime scenario is uncertain.
Additionally, many Iranian players are active in European leagues (Bundesliga, Serie A, etc.), raising concerns about their personal safety.
🔮 Outlook: Will Iran Play?
Scenario A — Withdrawal (more likely ↑)
- Escalating war leaves the Iranian government focused on domestic politics with no bandwidth for sports diplomacy
- If the U.S. blocks visas, FIFA would activate replacement team procedures to keep the tournament running
- Iraq (9th in AFC qualifying) or UAE (10th) could be eligible replacements
Scenario B — Participation (political card)
- Iran invokes the principle that 'sport is sport' and pushes through
- World Cup participation amid war becomes a symbol for domestic unity
- FIFA and the U.S. government work through diplomatic channels to resolve the visa issue
The key variable: How FIFA positions itself regarding Iran — unlike Russia, Iran is the victim, not the aggressor.
✅ Checklist: What to Watch
📎 Reference Links
- "Iran risks ₩15.7 billion loss if they forfeit World Cup spot…and could miss next tournament too" — Yonhap News
- "Iran stands to lose ₩15.4 billion and face exclusion from next World Cup if they withdraw" — Dong-A Ilbo
- "Iran faces ₩15 billion+ loss if they skip World Cup, and could miss the next one too" — Money Today
🖼️ Image Source
- Flag of Iran: Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain